Provided by David Satcher, M.D., Ph.D.
Surgeon General of the United States of America
Chapter 2
Overview of Etiology
Understanding Correlation, Causation, and Consequences
Any discussion of the etiology of mental health and mental
illness needs to distinguish three key terms: correlation, causation, and
consequences. These terms are often confused. All too frequently a biological
change in the brain (a lesion) is purported to be the“cause” of a mental
disorder, based on finding an association between the lesion and a mental
disorder. The fact is that any simple association—or correlation—cannot and does
not, by itself, mean causation. The lesion could be a correlate, a cause of, or
an effect of the mental disorder.
When researchers begin to tease apart etiology, they usually start by noticing
correlations. A correlation is an association or linkage of two (or more)
events. A correlation simply means that the events are linked in some way.
Finding a correlation between stressful life events and depression would prompt
more research on causation. Does stress cause depression? Does depression cause
stress? Or are they both caused by an unidentified factor? These would be the
questions guiding research. But, with correlational research, several steps are
needed before causation can be established.
If a correlational study shows that a stressful event is associated with an
increased probability for depression and that the stress usually precedes
depression’s onset, then stress is called a “risk factor” for depression.5 Risk
factors are biological, psychological, or sociocultural variables that increase
the probability for developing a disorder and antedate its onset (Garmezy, 1983;
Werner & Smith, 1992; Institute of Medicine [IOM], 1994a). For each mental
disorder, there are likely to be multiple risk factors, which are woven together
in a complex chain of causation (IOM, 1994a). Some risk factors may carry more
weight than others, and the interaction of risk factors may be additive or
synergistic.
Establishing causation of mental health and mental illness is extremely
difficult, as explained in Chapter 1. Studies in the form of randomized,
controlled experiments provide the strongest evidence of causation. The problem
is that experimental research in humans may be logistically, ethically, or
financially impossible. Correlational research in humans has thus provided much
of what is known about the etiology of mental disorders. Yet correlational
research is not as strong as experimental research in permitting inferences
about causality. The establishment of a cause and effect relationship requires
multiple studies and requires judgment about the weight of all the evidence.
Multiple correlational studies can be used to support causality, when, for
example, evaluating the effectiveness of clinical treatments (Chambless et al.,
1996). But, when studying etiology, correlational studies are, if possible, best
combined with evidence of biological plausibility (IOM, 1994b).6 This means that
correlational findings should fit with biological, chemical, and physical
findings about mechanisms of action relating to cause and effect.
Biological plausibility is often established in animal models of disease. That
is why researchers seek animal models in which to study causation. In mental
health research, there are some animal models—such as for anxiety and
hyperactivity—but a major problem is the difficulty of finding animal models
that simulate what is often uniquely human functioning. The search for animal
models, however, is imperative.
Consequences are defined as the later outcomes of a disorder. For example, the
most serious consequence of depression in older people is increased mortality
from either suicide or medical illness (Frasure-Smith et al., 1993, 1995;
Conwell, 1996; Penninx et al., 1998). The basis for this relationship is not
fully known. The relationship between depression and suicide in adolescents is
presented in Chapter 3.
Putting this all together, the biopsychosocial model holds that biological,
psychological, or social factors may be causes, correlates, and/or consequences
in relation to mental health and mental illness. A stressful life event, such as
receiving the news of a diagnosis of cancer, offers a graphic example of a
psychological event that causes immediate biological changes and later has
psychological, biological, and social consequences. When a patient receives news
of the cancer diagnosis, the brain’s sensory cortex simultaneously registers the
information (a correlate) and sets in motion biological changes that cause the
heart to pound faster. The patient may experience an almost immediate fear of
death that may later escalate to anxiety or depression. This certainly has been
established for breast cancer patients (Farragher, 1998). Anxiety and depression
are, in this case, consequences of the cancer diagnosis,7 although the exact
mechanisms are not understood. Being anxious or depressed may prompt further
changes in behavior, such as social withdrawal. So there may be social
consequences to the diagnosis as well. This example is designed to lay out some
of the complexity of the biopsychosocial model applied to mental health and
mental illness.
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